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NZ First on Climate
Climate · In depth

Fuel security: a $1 billion subsurface survey

In depth — from NZ First’s policy document

NZ First would spend $1 billion over a term of government on a National Subsurface Development Survey, building a single national dataset across energy, geothermal and CO₂ storage sites, and a framework to develop them. The case is that New Zealand’s offshore basins have never been surveyed with modern tools, that the odds of a major commercial discovery are above ninety percent, and that a find would fund a Norwegian-model sovereign wealth fund on royalties well above 50 percent.

Investment
$1bn
Over the term of a government
The survey
One national dataset
Across energy, geothermal and CO₂ storage sites
Basins
Ten prospective
The Great South Basin has had eight wells in its history
Claimed odds
Above 90%
Of a major commercial discovery, per unnamed analysis
Royalty
Well above 50%
On all extractions, as production matures
Where the money goes
A sovereign fund
On the Norwegian model
The timeline the policy sets out
  • First results within twelve months, turning potential into data global capital can bid against
  • Within twenty-four months, the highest-ranked basins surveyed, wells identified, and first physical proof reserves exist
  • Potentially within six years, a pathway to owning and controlling our own energy supply for domestic use and export

How it would work

The survey itself

A National Subsurface Development Survey pulling energy, geothermal and CO₂ storage sites into one national dataset, plus the framework to develop them. The document says existing seismic data is two technology generations old and covers only a fraction of the subsurface.

Why they say now

Survey costs are described as sitting at structural lows, and capital as moving into politically stable basins since the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz — but that to move, it needs modern data. The document points to Namibia, whose data acquisition campaign began in 2022, and Guyana, which went from first discovery to South America’s third-largest producer in under a decade.

What happens if they find something

Explorers would carry the risk of proving the fields on terms the document calls fair, with a royalty well above 50 percent on all extractions as production matures. Any discovery would be used to end the gas shortfalls it blames for high power prices, drive local fuel costs down, export oil and gas, and establish a Norwegian-model sovereign fund turning the find into permanent national wealth and regional investment.

How it is positioned against other parties

The document explicitly contrasts itself with what it calls tinkering around the edges with solar panel plans, arguing that does next to nothing for fuel and gas insecurity, and frames the issue as economic sovereignty rather than energy policy — New Zealand ceasing to be beholden to other nations’ decisions.

In their own words

“New Zealand potentially holds Norway-scale energy prospects in our offshore basins and that potential has never been accurately surveyed or characterised with modern tools.”

Future Proofing our Fuel Security · On the opportunity

“Analysis shows that the odds of New Zealand having a major commercial discovery in our basins is well above ninety percent.”

Future Proofing our Fuel Security · On the likelihood of a find

“We would set fair terms while explorers carry the risk of proving the fields — and over time place a royalty well above 50% on all extractions as production matures.”

Future Proofing our Fuel Security · On terms and royalties

“Other parties want to ‘tinker around the edges’ with solar panel plans – which does next to nothing to address fuel and gas insecurity”

Future Proofing our Fuel Security · On other parties’ energy policies

What the document doesn’t settle

Points the document defers or leaves undefined. These are gaps in the document, not criticisms of the policy.

  • The “well above ninety percent” figure is attributed to analysis that is not named, dated or cited.
  • The document does not address what the emissions consequences of extraction would be, or how the policy sits with New Zealand’s climate targets.
  • Whether the survey and any subsequent extraction would cover areas currently subject to offshore exploration restrictions is not stated.
  • The royalty is given as “well above 50%” without a figure, and “as production matures” is not defined.
  • No cost is attached to the development framework beyond the $1 billion for the survey itself.
  • The six-year pathway assumes a commercial discovery, and no alternative is described if the survey finds nothing.
  • CO₂ storage sites are named in the survey’s scope but no policy for using them is given.
Summarised from Future Proofing our Fuel Security, published by New Zealand First. Read 2026-08-16.
Read the full document
Back to NZ First on Climate

Coverage at a glance

Which party holds a published position on which topic.

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Swipe across to see all 11 topics — the party column stays put.

PartyEconomyHousingHealthEducationClimateEnvironmentCrime & JusticeTreaty & Māori AffairsImmigrationForeign PolicyDemocracy & Government
National
Published position∅ No stated position (verified) Not captured yet
∅
Labour∅∅∅∅∅∅
Green
ACT
NZ First
Te Pāti Māori
TOP
Also contesting, without seats in Parliament
Women’s Rights
Animal Justice
ALCP
Conservative
Outdoors & Freedom
Vision NZ
Alliance
Free Palestine
NZ Loyal∅
Te Tai Tokerau∅