Election Battlegrounds
2026 election →Seats to watch
Every electorate has its own battle page, with the defender, the record and the contest. The closest 2023 races are the likeliest to change hands in 2026; hotter colours mean tighter races.
The two rolls cover the same land, so view one at a time.
Ultra-marginal: 11
Marginal: 10
Competitive: 11
Safe: 38
Every seat, ranked by margin
Closest races first. Filter to a tier, or browse them all.
Mt AlbertUltra-marginal2023 majority 18
NelsonUltra-marginal2023 majority 26
Te AtatūUltra-marginal2023 majority 131
Banks PeninsulaUltra-marginal2023 majority 396
Te Tai TokerauUltra-marginal2023 majority 517Māori
New LynnUltra-marginal2023 majority 1,013
West Coast-TasmanUltra-marginal2023 majority 1,017
WigramUltra-marginal2023 majority 1,179
ŌhāriuUltra-marginal2023 majority 1,260
Hutt SouthUltra-marginal2023 majority 1,332
TaieriUltra-marginal2023 majority 1,443
Mt RoskillMarginal2023 majority 1,564
Christchurch CentralMarginal2023 majority 1,841
Christchurch EastMarginal2023 majority 2,397
RongotaiMarginal2023 majority 2,717
WairarapaMarginal2023 majority 2,816
Te Tai TongaMarginal2023 majority 2,824Māori
Ikaroa-RāwhitiMarginal2023 majority 2,874Māori
Hauraki-WaikatoMarginal2023 majority 2,911Māori
Palmerston NorthMarginal2023 majority 3,087
East CoastMarginal2023 majority 3,199
Auckland CentralCompetitive2023 majority 3,896
TāmakiCompetitive2023 majority 4,158
KelstonCompetitive2023 majority 4,396
MaungakiekieCompetitive2023 majority 4,617
Hamilton EastCompetitive2023 majority 5,060
WhanganuiCompetitive2023 majority 5,512
Wellington CentralCompetitive2023 majority 6,066
NorthlandCompetitive2023 majority 6,087
ŌtakiCompetitive2023 majority 6,271
Hamilton WestCompetitive2023 majority 6,488
New PlymouthCompetitive2023 majority 6,991
ManurewaSafe2023 majority 7,113
ManaSafe2023 majority 7,324
IlamSafe2023 majority 7,830
Panmure-ŌtāhuhuSafe2023 majority 7,970
DunedinSafe2023 majority 7,980
EpsomSafe2023 majority 8,142
TakaniniSafe2023 majority 8,775
RemutakaSafe2023 majority 8,859
NapierSafe2023 majority 8,909
RotoruaSafe2023 majority 8,923
Te Tai HauāuruSafe2023 majority 9,162Māori
NorthcoteSafe2023 majority 9,270
TaurangaSafe2023 majority 9,370
RangitīkeiSafe2023 majority 9,785
InvercargillSafe2023 majority 9,874
TukitukiSafe2023 majority 10,118
RangitataSafe2023 majority 10,846
Upper HarbourSafe2023 majority 11,192
KaikōuraSafe2023 majority 11,412
WhangāreiSafe2023 majority 11,424
MāngereSafe2023 majority 11,712
WaitakiSafe2023 majority 12,151
WaimakaririSafe2023 majority 13,010
PapakuraSafe2023 majority 13,519
Taranaki-King CountrySafe2023 majority 14,355
Bay of PlentySafe2023 majority 15,405
WaiarikiSafe2023 majority 15,891Māori
BotanySafe2023 majority 16,323
North ShoreSafe2023 majority 16,330
TaupōSafe2023 majority 16,505
SouthlandSafe2023 majority 17,211
CoromandelSafe2023 majority 17,349
WaikatoSafe2023 majority 18,548
PakurangaSafe2023 majority 18,710
Kaipara ki MahurangiSafe2023 majority 19,459
SelwynSafe2023 majority 19,782
East Coast BaysSafe2023 majority 20,353
WhangaparāoaSafe2023 majority 23,376
Port WaikatoResult pending2023 majority pending
Tāmaki MakaurauResult pending2023 majority pendingMāori
Marginality is based on the official 2023 winning margins (Electoral Commission). Tap any seat, on the map or in the list, for its battle page. 2026 candidates appear on each battle page as parties confirm them during the campaign.