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National on Foreign Policy
Foreign Policy · In depth

New Zealand’s Next Billion Customers — the trade agenda

In depth — from National’s policy document · 2026

National proposes opening trade negotiations with seven new economies over five years, extending the essential-supplies agreement signed with Singapore to other partners, cutting border paperwork through paperless trade and digital customs, and giving New Zealand Trade and Enterprise a mandate to seek out opportunities rather than wait to be asked. It restates a target of doubling export value by 2034.

New negotiations
Seven economies
To commence within five years
Those markets
~700m people
And more than US$5 trillion of GDP combined
NZ exports there now
$1.8bn
Which the document frames as the size of the opportunity
Export target
Doubled by 2034
Exports have risen from $94.4bn to $114.1bn
Non-tariff barriers
$1bn to be removed
After $733m removed this term
Trade missions
At least 23 next term
More sector-specific, with commercial targets
What the agenda would do
  • Commence trade negotiations with Brazil, Switzerland, Argentina, EFTA, Bangladesh, Nigeria and Uruguay
  • Negotiate essential-supplies agreements with further partners, using the Singapore agreement as the template
  • Expand paperless trade and digital customs through the Future of Investment and Trade Partnership
  • Extend real-time digital certification to the UK and other close partners
  • Give New Zealand Trade and Enterprise a mandate to lead companies to opportunities, not only respond to them
  • Complete at least 23 trade missions over the term

How it would work

The seven markets, and why these ones

The document groups them into three categories and gives the figures for each: high-income European economies, large South American ones, and emerging Asian and African markets. Together it puts them at almost 700 million people and over US$5 trillion of GDP, against current New Zealand exports of $1.8 billion.

  • Brazil — 214m people, US$2.19tn GDP, $205.81m of New Zealand exports today
  • Switzerland — 8.7m, US$936.56bn, $467.64m
  • Argentina — 46m, US$638.37bn, $75.2m
  • EFTA (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway) — 6m, US$525.09bn, $83.78m
  • Bangladesh — 178m, US$450.12bn, $670.15m
  • Nigeria — 242m, US$252.26bn, $224.99m
  • Uruguay — 3.5m, US$80.96bn, $27.36m
Essential supplies agreements

New Zealand and Singapore signed an Agreement on Trade in Essential Supplies on 4 May 2026, which the document describes as guaranteeing that food, medicines, medical supplies and critical inputs keep moving between the two during a disruption, committing both to avoid export restrictions on each other, and creating a framework for information sharing when supply chains come under pressure. National would use it as a template with other partners.

Paperless trade and digital customs

The vehicle is the Future of Investment and Trade Partnership, a network of 16 economies New Zealand helped convene with Singapore, Switzerland and the UAE, which the document expects to pass 20 members. The aim is real-time digital trade documentation, fewer non-tariff barriers, and automated customs and origin systems so goods clear borders faster.

A different job for NZTE

NZTE works with around 1,000 companies. The document says it has largely responded to companies that ask for help, and proposes shifting it to what it calls a “lead and follow” model — identifying which exporters stand to gain when a new agreement opens a tariff window and approaching them, and building forward-looking sector opportunity maps.

What the document counts as this term’s record

It sets the agenda against results it attributes to the current term, which are the party’s own figures rather than independently sourced here.

  • A free trade agreement with India, cutting or removing tariffs on 95 percent of exports
  • The NZ–EU agreement in force ahead of schedule, with exports up 37.9 percent since signing
  • Concluded negotiations with the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council
  • 23 trade missions to 18 countries, and $733 million of non-tariff barriers removed

In their own words

“These seven markets combined represent almost 700 million people and a GDP of more than US$5 trillion, similar to the size of the German and Japanese economies today, and growing rapidly.”

Building the Future: New Zealand’s Next Billion Customers · Prioritising new trade deals

“A re-elected National Government will ask NZTE to do more: to actively lead companies to new opportunities and markets, not just follow where they point.”

Building the Future: New Zealand’s Next Billion Customers · New Zealand Trade and Enterprise

What the document doesn’t settle

Points the document defers or leaves undefined. These are gaps in the document, not criticisms of the policy.

  • The document carries no costings — neither for the negotiations themselves nor for the extra NZTE resourcing it proposes.
  • It commits to commencing negotiations with seven economies, not to concluding any of them, and gives no expected timeframe for a deal.
  • The $1 billion of non-tariff barriers to be removed is a target; the document does not say which barriers or how they would be counted.
  • The record it sets out for the current term is the party’s own account, without independent sourcing in the document.
Summarised from Building the Future: New Zealand’s Next Billion Customers, published by New Zealand National Party in 2026. Authorised by J de Joux, 41 Pipitea St, Wellington. Read 2026-08-14.
Link to the published document to come.
Back to National on Foreign Policy

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